Italy
Overview
Italy is entering a decisive decade for CDR. Despite steady emissions reductions, current policies leave the country on a trajectory that overshoots a linear path to climate neutrality by nearly 60% by 2050, even when counting existing natural sinks. In 2023, gross GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF contributions) were nearly 385 MtCO₂e, and the most optimistic official long-term scenarios still project 68–100 MtCO₂e of residual emissions in 2050 that must be neutralised through a mix of engineered CDR and land sinks. This range reflects subsequent modelling (Gaeta et al.) building on the Long-Term Strategy (LTS), spanning scenarios from near-zero emissions in the power-sector and fully electrified transport, to more conservative pathways with continued fossil fuel use in heavy industry and unconstrained aviation (upper bound).
Key takeaways
The realistic CDR potential in Italy shows that CDR is essential to meet Italy’s climate targets.
Most CDR methods are possible in Italy. Mobilising a diversified portfolio of CDR methods distributes risk and resource pressure.
Beyond resource availability, Italy’s social geography and institutional landscape will determine whether the country will reach net-zero or not.
Land and agriculture are Italy’s near-term backbone for CDR.
Geological storage is a critical bottleneck for permanent CDR.
Highly permanent geochemical, synthetic and biomass conversion methods operate at limited scale today but are strategic to reach net-zero.
Italy should establish a national CDR strategy with clear milestones and pathways to clarify the expected contributions from land‑use and forestry (LULUCF), biomass conversion, geochemical, and DACCS methods, ensuring each sector has a defined role.
