When we think of carbon dioxide removal, Poland is not often the first country to come to mind. Yet a new Carbon Removal Readiness Assessment from Carbon Gap and Sweco makes a compelling case for why that ought to change. The report maps Poland’s physical potential for carbon removal against the current socio-economic and political landscape, and it’s a weighty find: Poland is sitting on substantial, largely untapped CDR capacity, that has yet to fully wake up to what it has.

Where Poland stands today

Poland is legally bound by the EU’s 2050 climate neutrality target but has not yet written that commitment into national law. There is no long-term climate strategy, no national CDR targets, and carbon removal barely features in domestic policy debate. Coal remains central to the energy mix, and questions of energy security and industrial competitiveness continue to dominate the political conversation.

Yet Poland has many cards up its proverbial sleeve it could use if it chose to. It has extensive forests, significant peatlands, and large swathes of agricultural land, useful not only for land-based CDR methods but also for biomass conversion methods like BECCS or biochar. More importantly, it has excellent feedstocks for geochemical CDR and sits on substantial geological CO2 storage capacity that remains almost entirely undeveloped. The cards are all there, the question is whether the country will pol(pun intended) them out and play them.

If ambitious, Poland could go beyond net-zero

The assessment models two realistic pathways to 2050, and the gap between them is instructive.

The first – a low ambition scenario – is essentially a continuation of current trends. Policy effort stays limited, resources are directed primarily elsewhere, and CDR deployment grows slowly. Under this pathway, Poland removes around 7 Mt CO2 per year by 2030, rising to around 16 Mt CO2 by 2050. Add in Poland’s natural forest carbon sink, and those figures reach approximately 47 Mt CO2 in 2030 and 56 Mt CO2 in 2050. Progress, but not transformation.

The second – a high ambition scenario – tells a very different story. CDR is actively pursued across multiple sectors. Peatland restoration accelerates, geological storage is developed and expanded, and a greater share of biomass and land resources is directed towards carbon removal. Under this pathway, Poland reaches around 15 Mt CO2 per year by 2030 and 45 Mt CO2 by 2050 – or up to 85 Mt CO2 when the natural forest sink is included. Poland’s residual emissions in 2050 are estimated at 30-50 Mt CO2. In other words, under the high ambition scenario, Poland does not merely reach net-zero – it goes beyond it.

Geological CO2 storage is single biggest factor separating these two futures. It’s a question of whether Poland will pool its resources to reach and perhaps surpass net-zero.

Poland’s barriers are real, but they are not insurmountable

The most fundamental barrier to scaling CDR in Poland is the absence of a policy framework. Without national CDR targets or a long-term climate strategy that integrates emissions reductions with carbon removals, there is no signal for investors or project developers to act on. Hard-to-abate industrial sectors, which will eventually need access to carbon management solutions, are left without a credible roadmap, looking for a door that has not yet been built.

The policy barrier is further compounded by the issue that CDR projects typically carry high upfront costs and long payback periods. Private investment will not flow without predictable revenue, whether through the EU Emissions Trading System, Carbon Contracts for Difference, or dedicated public procurement. None of these mechanisms currently exists for CDR in Poland.

Geological storage, though abundant, is currently prioritised for industrial emissions reduction rather than CDR, and the infrastructure is in early stages of development and will require planning decisions that need to begin now, not in 2040.

Currently, public awareness remains limited, but engagement and education shift attitudes. Nature-based approaches like afforestation, peatland restoration, and carbon farming already attract genuine public support, and interest in technologies like BECCS and biochar is growing. The public conversation is not absent; it just needs to be pulled in the right direction.

The path ahead

Poland is not a peripheral player in the European CDR story, it is a central one. The country’s geological storage resources alone could eventually support not just domestic decarbonisation but the carbon management needs of neighbouring countries. It could even become a regional hub for CO2 transport and storage infrastructure in a way that few other Member States could match.

But none of that happens without policy. The immediate priority is a long-term climate strategy that takes CDR seriously, one that sets national targets, creates the conditions for investment, and connects climate neutrality objectives with industrial policy and carbon management planning.

With the right pol-icy in place, Poland could become the regional carbon removal heavy-weight.

Under a high-ambition scenario, Poland could remove up to ~85 MtCO₂ per year by 2050, exceeding its projected residual emissions and positioning the country as a potential carbon management hub for Central and Eastern Europe.

But that potential is at serious risk of going unrealised.

Poland has no national CDR targets, no dedicated climate law, and no integrated strategy linking climate neutrality, industrial policy, and carbon removal. Under a low-ambition scenario, CDR delivers just ~16 MtCO₂/year by 2050; well short of what’s needed.

Key findings:
• Over 80% of near-term potential comes from ecosystem-based methods: afforestation, peatland restoration, and cropland and pasture management
• Geological CO₂ storage is the critical bottleneck. Significant capacity exists but remains underdeveloped
• Public support can be built. Citizens and stakeholders backed nature-based approaches, with growing openness to technological methods.

Our launch event for explored these findings in partnership with Sweco with the participation of Sylvain Delerce – Carbon Gap, Martina Massei – Carbon Gap, and Heini Vassinen – Sweco.

Watch the event

Carbon Gap and B3 Carbon presented the first comprehensive analysis of Italy’s potential to scale carbon dioxide removal based on its natural resources and social landscape.

More than 60 participants joined us at Talent Garden from across the Italian carbon removal ecosystem; including researchers, policymakers, industry representatives, and civil society – our largest attendance so far in the CRRA “tour”.

The report was warmly received, with many participants welcoming the effort to map Italy’s CDR potential and connect it with the broader European policy conversation.

Several clear themes emerged from the discussions.

• There is no one-size-fits-all solution that can be readily implemented. Italy needs to leverage the diversity of CDR methods with tailored policy measures
• The missing demand signals were front and centre of the debate. Jacopo Bencini used this great metaphor: The markets are like mushrooms, if it doesn’t rain, they do not grow. His metaphor ties back to the urgent need to structure public policies on CDR in Italy.
• Governance as a solution came up repeatedly. Fragmented institutional structures and limited cross-regional alignment were flagged as real bottlenecks.
• Public trust matters as much as technology, underscoring the need for transparent governance and clear local benefits.

In the afternoon, Carbon Gap and Rete Italiana Rimozione Carbonio (RIRC) co-organised  a first national road-mapping workshop to translate the CRRA findings into a practical, regionally grounded plan for scaling carbon removal in Italy, with more than 20 people taking part.

A huge thank you to our speakers: Vanessa Leonardi (ISPRA), Francesco Musardo (Radica, formerly Radica | The Root of Change), Jacopo Bencini (European University Institute), Paolo Testini (Snam S.p.A.), and Stefano Cappello (Limenet), Ilaria Falconi (CREA Ricerca), and Francesco Gagliano (Rete Italiana Rimozione Carbonio (RIRC)).

More than 30 participants joined us from across the Spanish carbon removal ecosystem; including representatives from the Ministry of Industry, several universities, CDR start-ups and established actors of the transition like Fundación Repsol, Sylvestris and Enagás.

The report was very well received, with many participants welcoming the effort to structure the national conversation and connect it with developments happening across Europe and internationally.

Several clear themes emerged from the discussions.

• Awareness of carbon dioxide removal remains low in Spain; many participants highlighted this as one of the biggest barriers to progress today.
• Spain has a strong nature-based solutions community, which showed clear interest in exploring alternatives to credit-based demand models, while also voicing concerns seen in other countries about how a broader mix of CDR approaches might evolve.
• The classic “chicken and egg” dynamic. Policymakers suggested that the topic will be easier to address once projects become more tangible and visible. Meanwhile, developers and stakeholders called for proactive government support to help those projects emerge in the first place.

Silos: The follow-up workshop also revealed how fragmented the Spanish CDR landscape currently is. Many initiatives, projects, and start-ups are operating in parallel but often in silos. This weakens the ecosystem’s visibility and makes it harder for international partners and investors to understand who is doing what in Spain.

The good news: several participants committed to taking steps to better connect the existing actors and strengthen collaboration across the ecosystem. Stay tuned.

An inspiring group of CDR experts and partners marked this milestone and dove into what it will take for Germany to scale high-quality carbon removal. The message: Germany has the potential to deploy a diverse portfolio of CDR methods and reach more than 90 MtCO₂ per year by 2045.

Combined with deep and rapid emissions reductions, that level of removal could keep the country on track for its legal net-zero and net-negative targets. Now is the moment to build momentum: from policy signals to CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure, and from pilots to real-world delivery at scale. The credibility of net-zero depends on CDR getting off the ground quickly, and despite many challenges remaining, the ideas and ambition shared in the room yesterday made that feel genuinely achievable.

Our analysis highlights:

• High-ambition pathways can fully offset Germany’s expected residual emissions by 2045
• Low ambition risks falling far short, delivering only around 47 MtCO₂ removals, despite a theoretical potential of ~258 MtCO₂ per year
• Geological CO₂ storage and transport infrastructure are key constraints that must be addressed urgently
• A diversified portfolio of approaches, from DACCS to biochar, will be essential
• Public support is emerging, but clear regulation and market frameworks are still missing

The consensus among the crowd was clear – Germany has a real opportunity to lead on carbon removals in Europe; but under investment now could jeopardise climate targets later.